US Share in Global World Cup Betting
The investment bank Macquarie reports that the United States will contribute merely 5% of the global betting volume for the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup. Despite increased access to legal sports betting, the impact on international forecasts remains minimal.
Global Betting Volume Projections
Macquarie forecasts a staggering $50 billion in global bets for the tournament, which is expected to be the largest betting event ever. This projection maintains a per-match forecast of approximately $0.5 billion, echoing figures from the 2022 event, even with expanded U.S. market access and innovations like live betting and player props.
Impact of Tournament Expansion
Analyst Chad Beynon indicated that the extended tournament format could reduce per-match betting activity. With more matches, wagering may spread across a broader schedule, potentially lowering individual match volumes.
Focus on Legal Sports Betting
The $35 billion estimate from the 2022 World Cup relied on legal betting activity, excluding offshore markets. Macquarie’s focus was solely on legal bets, anticipating that 50% of total wagers within the period would be World Cup-related.
Exclusion of Prediction Markets
Macquarie’s forecast did not account for prediction markets. Beynon noted these platforms might be more attractive in regions without legal sportsbooks, drawing users who can’t access traditional betting apps.
Expected Growth for Operators
The forecast anticipates a 2%-5% increase in operator EBITDA by 2027, highlighting companies like Flutter Entertainment and Rush Street Interactive as beneficiaries of the World Cup’s economic impact.
