Macau GGR Set for Recovery Post World Cup
Macau’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) is projected to bounce back after the FIFA World Cup concludes, according to Jefferies. This follows a period where revenues were affected by the tournament, capital restrictions, and challenging year-on-year comparisons. In the second quarter of 2026, GGR was recorded at MOP66 billion ($8.2 billion), marking a 7.4% decrease from the previous quarter and a slight 0.1% drop compared to last year. Although the quarter started strong with April and May witnessing upward trends, June saw a 12.1% decline as the gaming hub’s revenue faced pressure.
July Performance Faced Ongoing Challenges
Jefferies forecasts a continued dip in July’s revenues, anticipated to fall 8% year-on-year due to ongoing effects from the World Cup, which spans from June 11th to July 19th. Despite this, a recovery is expected beginning August, with projected growth of 2% for the third quarter and 4% for the fourth quarter of 2026. This recovery trajectory would result in full-year revenue of MOP260 billion ($32 billion), representing a 5% increase, slightly below the market consensus of 6% growth.
Key Market Drivers and Insights
The anticipated rebound is partly attributed to the ‘wealth effect’ from new IPOs, with gains from Hong Kong listings boosting luxury sales and gaming expenditures since mid-2025. However, this has also led to more challenging year-on-year comparisons for the remainder of the year. Jefferies has refined its sector outlook, highlighting Galaxy Entertainment as its top choice due to its robust execution and financial standing, while Sands China has been removed from this position.
Market Shares and Analyst Ratings
In the second quarter, Sands China was reportedly the only major operator to lose market share, decreasing by 2.5 percentage points to 24%. Conversely, operators like Galaxy (21.1%), MGM China (16.7%), Wynn Macau (13.8%), and SJM (10.3%) gained ground. Jefferies has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating for Galaxy, Sands China, MGM China, and Wynn Macau. SJM Holdings, however, is rated ‘Hold’ due to a less clear profitability outlook.
Conclusion
Macau’s gaming sector is poised for a resurgence post-World Cup as market dynamics shift positively. While facing near-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains favorable supported by strategic operations and broader economic factors. The coming months will reveal how these forecasts and ratings play out in an evolving gaming landscape.